Mid-America Manufacturing Economy Continues Expansion

OMAHA, Neb. (March 3, 2025) — The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, moved above growth neutral of 50.0 for a second straight month. 

Overall Index: The Business Conditions Index, which uses the identical methodology as the national Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral, climbed to 52.0 from 51.1 in January. The index has vacillated above and below growth neutral since April 2023.

“I remain concerned about the negative impact of tariffs on the cost of imported inputs and of retaliation on U.S. manufactured exports. On average, supply managers expect the proposed tariffs to increase the cost of imported inputs by 9.6%,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business.

The Mid-America report is produced independently of the national ISM.

Employment: For a second straight month, the employment gauge climbed above growth neutral in February. The February employment index improved to 51.2 from January’s 51.1. Despite weak manufacturing employment readings over the past year, approximately one in four firms reported labor shortages as their top 2025 economic challenge.

Comments from supply managers in February:
“Low consumer confidence will adversely affect our business.”
“Severe shortage in accountants is prompting a ‘gold rush’ mentality in the ‘coaching’ sector...  "Bookkeeper to CFO in 90 Days"…  "Stop doing detail work for $50, give advice for $350"…  “LOTS of flim-flam in the economy right now.”
“We are already seeing some industries struggling while others seem to be immune to the economic conditions around the world. Should issues start to impact those industries that appear to be immune, then I would expect a recession. I hope I'm wrong, but I am watching the world closely.”
“It will take some time for the Trump administration to right the wrongs of the previous administration.”
“I appreciate the President working to make America on the same playing field as other countries. As someone who will be paying out of pocket for this, it is going to hurt.”

Wholesale Prices: The February price gauge rose to 63.2, its highest level since May 2024, and up from 62.0 in January. “The regional inflation yardstick has clearly moved into a range indicating that inflationary pressures are moving higher. Even so, I expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at its March 18-19 meetings,” said Goss.

Confidence: Looking ahead six months, economic optimism, as captured by the February Business Confidence Index, plummeted to 45.7 from January’s 61.4. “Due to concerns regarding global economic tensions and rising tariffs, only one-third of supply managers expect improving business conditions over the next six months,” said Goss.

Inventories: The regional inventory index, reflecting levels of raw materials and supplies, dipped to 51.4 from 52.8 in January. “In anticipation of higher costs from tariff implementation, firms continue to add to their inventory levels,” said Goss. 

Trade: The relatively strong dollar continues to make U.S. goods less competitively priced abroad and pushed the export index below growth neutral to 44.6, but it was up from 41.7 in January. Concerns over higher costs from tariffs pushed supply managers to buy early from abroad, driving the import index to a record high of 68.2 from January’s 67.5, also a record high.

According to U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA) data, the regional economy expanded the export of manufactured goods for 2024 by $1.0 billion from 2023 for a 1.1% gain. In terms of 2023 to 2024 export gainers, Minnesota registered the top gain at a $2.1 billion addition, and North Dakota recorded the largest loss with a $3.1 billion reduction in the export of manufactured goods.  

Other survey components of the February Business Conditions Index were: new orders increased to 50.4 from 49.0 in January; the production or sales index rose to 51.2 from January’s 46.7; and the speed of deliveries of raw materials and supplies was unchanged from January’s 55.7.

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has conducted the monthly survey of supply managers in nine states since 1994 to produce leading economic indicators of the Mid-America economy. States included in the survey are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

Below are the state reports:

Arkansas: The state’s February Business Conditions Index climbed to 55.3 from 50.2 in January. Components from the February survey of supply managers were: new orders at 51.9; production or sales at 52.5; delivery lead time at 56.2; inventories at 56.7; and employment at 59.3. According to U.S. International Trade Administration data, Arkansas expanded manufacturing exports by $552.3 million between 2023 and 2024 for a 10.0% gain.

Iowa: The state’s Business Conditions Index for February increased to 44.5 from January’s 43.1. Components of the overall February index were: new orders at 48.1; production or sales at 40.4; delivery lead time at 37.4; employment at 47.8; and inventories at 48.0. According to U.S. International Trade Administration data, manufacturing exports for Iowa declined by $1.5 billion for a reduction of 9.0% between 2023 and 2024.

Kansas: The Kansas Business Conditions Index for February fell to a regional low of 43.1 from January’s 49.6 . Components of the leading economic indicators from the monthly survey of supply managers for February were: new orders at 47.9; production or sales at 39.6; delivery lead time at 36.1; employment at 47.8; and inventories at 44.2. According to U.S. International Trade Administration data, Kansas expanded manufacturing exports by $438.5 million between 2023 and 2024 for a 3.6% gain.

Minnesota: The February Business Conditions Index for Minnesota advanced to 54.7 from 53.3 in January. Components of the overall February index were: new orders at 51.9; production or sales at 52.5; delivery lead time at 56.2; inventories at 53.7; and employment at 59.3. According to U.S. International Trade Administration data, Minnesota expanded manufacturing exports by $2.1 billion between 2023 and 2024 for a 9.3% gain.

Missouri: The state’s February Business Conditions Index rose to a regional high of 56.2 from January’s 50.2. Components of the overall index from the survey of supply managers for February were: new orders at 52.1; production or sales at 53.1; delivery lead time at 57.1; inventories at 66.5; and employment at 52.5. According to U.S. International Trade Administration data, Missouri expanded manufacturing exports by $1.3 billion between 2023 and 2024 for an 8.3% gain.

Nebraska: After eight straight months of above growth neutral, Nebraska’s overall index sank below this threshold. The state’s February Business Conditions Index stood at 44.5 from January’s regional high 58.1. Components of the index from the monthly survey of supply managers for February were: new orders at 49.6; production or sales at 45.1; delivery lead time at 44.7; inventories at 34.5; and employment at 48.5. According to U.S. International Trade Administration data, Nebraska expanded manufacturing exports by $160.1 million between 2023 and 2024 for a 2.8% gain.

North Dakota: The state’s overall, or Business Conditions, index advanced above growth neutral for an eighth consecutive month to 55.1 from 53.3 in January. Components of the overall index for February were: new orders at 51.9; production or sales at 52.4; delivery lead time at 56.0; employment at 51.2; and inventories at 63.8. According to U.S. International Trade Administration data, manufacturing exports for North Dakota declined by $3.1 billion for a reduction of 46.0% between 2023 and 2024.

Oklahoma: The state’s Business Conditions Index for February climbed to 56.1 from January’s 54.4. Components of the overall February index were: new orders at 52.0; production or sales at 52.7; delivery lead time at 56.5; inventories at 65.1; and employment at 54.3. According to U.S. International Trade Administration data, Oklahoma expanded manufacturing exports by $1.3 billion between 2023 and 2024 for a 22.2% gain.

South Dakota: The February Business Conditions Index for South Dakota dropped to 46.0 from January’s 50.2. Components of the overall February index were: new orders at 47.3; production or sales at 49.3; delivery lead time at 46.5; inventories at 47.2; and employment at 43.0. According to U.S. International Trade Administration data, manufacturing exports for South Dakota declined by $280.0 million for a reduction of 12.8% between 2023 and 2024.

Survey results for the month of March will be released on April 1, 2025, the first business day of the month.